Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 1.202470e-01 0.148087 0.178448 0.213727 0.253311 0.296085 0.345531
2025-04-06 8.136081e-02 0.117070 0.159725 0.213211 0.277306 0.350555 0.439505
2025-04-13 5.776243e-02 0.097382 0.149057 0.218388 0.306136 0.410915 0.542921
2025-04-20 4.201855e-02 0.083369 0.142122 0.225906 0.336985 0.474426 0.652627
2025-04-27 3.037065e-02 0.071668 0.135622 0.232172 0.365553 0.535667 0.761530
2025-05-04 2.035823e-02 0.059068 0.125073 0.230786 0.382866 0.582500 0.853444
2025-05-11 1.426517e-02 0.051026 0.119669 0.235452 0.407759 0.639280 0.959005
2025-05-18 9.025716e-03 0.042084 0.110724 0.233189 0.421957 0.681613 1.046381
2025-05-25 4.584579e-03 0.031709 0.096558 0.220433 0.419282 0.700081 1.102012
2025-06-01 2.711765e-03 0.026964 0.091942 0.222491 0.438143 0.748200 1.197641
2025-06-08 1.217429e-03 0.021244 0.083595 0.216772 0.444204 0.777926 1.268508
2025-06-15 7.739881e-04 0.019899 0.084884 0.228366 0.477694 0.847384 1.394706
2025-06-22 2.793674e-04 0.016386 0.079995 0.228141 0.492648 0.891162 1.487531
2025-06-29 6.743142e-05 0.013593 0.076030 0.229116 0.509395 0.937840 1.585201
2025-07-06 1.023462e-05 0.011963 0.074858 0.235452 0.535170 0.998346 1.703205
2025-07-13 1.341932e-07 0.010808 0.074769 0.243897 0.564672 1.064876 1.830566
2025-07-20 NaN 0.009596 0.074040 0.250815 0.591664 1.128037 1.953941
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007674 0.069823 0.249550 0.604165 1.169241 2.046358
2025-08-03 NaN 0.006625 0.068511 0.254576 0.627789 1.227774 2.164310
2025-08-10 NaN 0.005128 0.064283 0.252261 0.637973 1.265536 2.252545
2025-08-17 NaN 0.003214 0.056000 0.238860 0.627003 1.269690 2.291566
2025-08-24 NaN 0.002560 0.054095 0.241052 0.644853 1.319396 2.397765
2025-08-31 NaN 0.001681 0.049333 0.235035 0.646733 1.343491 2.466268